Tuesday, 28 January, 2020

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Tag: Brian C Coester CEO


Everyone is aging, right? “I finally did it! I bought a new pair of shoes with memory foam insoles. No more forgetting why I walked into the kitchen!” People change, populations change, and loan officers must adapt. economists have revised 2020 growth prospects higher and revised down recession probabilities, many economic indicators are positive: consumer spending and confidence is high, Read more…


Mortgage rates rose in October for the first time this year and that increase, while small, is reflected in loans that closed in November according to Ellie Mae’s Origination Insight Report. The average interest rate of loans originated during the month increased to 3.97 percent from 3.94 percent among the October crop. Most likely in response, the percentage of adjustable Read more…


For all practical purposes, today is the last trading day of the year.  In fact, based on volumes so far, today may actually be the first day of the winter holiday break.  Either way, we’ve certainly passed to last of 2019’s “high consequence / high significance” trading days.  That doesn’t mean we can’t end up seeing some volatility over the Read more…


The boom continued in October as more than half of the loans closed during the month were for refinancing. According to Ellie Mae’s Origination Insight Report, those loans accounted for 51 percent of the total originated on its system, the highest percentage since March 2015.  The share was 2 percentage points higher than in September. The average note rate for Read more…


Much of 2019 has been “interesting” from an analytical standpoint.  Things were happening.  Markets were reacting.  Movement was big and directional.  Even as recently as 2 weeks ago, we had quite a lot to talk about with respect to the important rate ceilings in the 1.9% range being broken (10yr Treasury).   Hindsight made it clear that the potential range breakout Read more…


Last week saw the US bond market fight off an intermittent barrage of weakness  as global markets geared up for the weekend’s big Brexit vote.  By Friday, 10yr yields were only 2bps higher on the week.  This left them just inside the longer-term consolidation pattern we’ve been following (in the chart below), but at risk of breaking out depending on Read more…


Great MLOs keep up on events not only impacting their loans but on events impacting the everyone else’s loans as well. For example, the Supreme Court has agreed to rule on the constitutionality of the CFPB’s structure. Saturday’s commentary discussed new developments for the transition away from LIBOR and toward SOFR. For any clients with adjustable rate mortgages the Treasury Read more…


Last week brought the pain.  It was the worst single week for the bond market (if we count MBS) since 2013.  Although this week won’t break any records, it was a refreshing change of pace, with almost every day seeing decent improvement.   Today’s gains were the best, but also the most serendipitous.  A seemingly insignificant headline about Chinese delegates cancelling Read more…


What a difference a week makes!  At the end of last week, things were pretty grim, with mortgage rates having just seen their worst single week since 2013.  The uplifting caveat at the time was that such bouts of nastiness are not that uncommon in the wake of ultra strong performances (such as the entire month of August–the best single month since Read more…


The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is anticipating an increase in new home sales in August.  The organization’s Builder Application Survey found the volume of applications to finance the purchase of newly construction homes was 33 percent higher than in August 2018 although there was a downtick of 0.2 percent month-over-month. The numbers do not include any adjustment for typical seasonal Read more…


The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) increased 1 point in September.  Along with an upward revision to the August number, that carried the HMI to its highest level of the year.  The September reading was 68 and the August HMI was revised from 66 to 67. The index is a measure of builders confidence Read more…


For readers who deny climate change is real, natural or manmade, sinking cities around the world (including Houston and New Orleans) can be attributed to groundwater issues (public and private wells pulling water out of aquafers), another long-term trend that lenders could worry about, or at least be aware of. But one thing that lenders are not worried about are Read more…


Congratulations to Hawaii which became a state fifty years ago today. We’ve had plenty of economic cycles, small and large, in fifty years, although in general rates have been coming down since 1981. And we’ve had a flat or inverted U.S. yield curve for several months. Inverted yield curves don’t cause a recession: Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is Read more…


Residential construction has been famously slow for several years and some new analysis of Census data by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) shows that the lack of robustness is shared in the custom home sector.  In an Eye-on-Housing blog article, Robert Dietz, NAHB Senior Vice President and Chief Economist says custom home building has been effectively flat over Read more…


The volume of mortgage applications continued to be shored up by refinancing during the week ended August 16, but overall activity was down. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index slipped 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, perhaps not surprising after it soared 21.7 percent the previous week.  On an unadjusted basis the Index fell by Read more…